Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.666754 21.381659 23.275043 25.540085 28.202762 31.268235 35.116993
2024-12-22 16.965143 19.190879 21.827458 25.249250 29.682436 35.404572 43.675187
2024-12-29 15.159735 17.643236 20.741631 25.026088 31.044577 39.657366 53.995954
2025-01-05 13.865778 16.492213 19.904282 24.873149 32.357367 44.143435 66.843763
2025-01-12 12.738053 15.392535 18.945772 24.329256 32.903854 47.556825 79.955477
2025-01-19 12.288994 15.124048 19.054611 25.302750 35.985757 56.387222 112.200231
2025-01-26 11.589498 14.431314 18.462117 25.078821 36.966443 61.637643 142.765037
2025-02-02 11.070580 13.939792 18.099708 25.147923 38.467496 68.722918 194.189603
2025-02-09 10.653464 13.554859 17.849276 25.350787 40.261633 77.559405 286.364347
2025-02-16 10.254920 13.163232 17.544596 25.404521 41.757186 86.652915 450.381895
2025-02-23 9.829682 12.700836 17.084203 25.109962 42.420129 93.805550 722.729424
2025-03-02 9.508601 12.373870 16.812136 25.124080 43.800856 104.731113 1697.656361
2025-03-09 9.161237 11.991196 16.427136 24.892253 44.590311 114.621353 8508.950857
2025-03-16 8.838308 11.628850 16.050095 24.633210 45.270412 125.190914 NaN
2025-03-23 8.551376 11.307388 15.719066 24.427728 46.060058 137.781348 NaN
2025-03-30 8.297668 11.025020 15.434881 24.284701 47.003932 153.259693 NaN
2025-04-06 8.003472 10.664376 14.992391 23.763792 46.736997 161.184551 NaN
2025-04-13 7.951567 10.688329 15.222307 24.699769 51.185992 216.760351 NaN
2025-04-20 7.735460 10.435187 14.941841 24.485073 51.915099 243.559120 NaN
2025-04-27 7.572523 10.261634 14.793836 24.551596 53.648891 292.357524 NaN
2025-05-04 7.436626 10.126256 14.706290 24.746473 55.942999 370.131499 NaN
2025-05-11 7.290240 9.966938 14.564443 24.798098 57.755167 466.236771 NaN
2025-05-18 7.110832 9.745390 14.294322 24.515253 58.178293 542.026699 NaN